China: Exports expected to contract around 3.0% in 2023 – UOB

Ho Woei Chen, Economist at UOB Group, comments on the recently published trade balance results in the Chinese economy.

Key Takeaways

“In USD terms, exports and imports extended their declines in Jan-Feb, marking continuous declines since 4Q22.”

“China’s exports rose 29.9% in 2021 and a further 7.0% in 2022. Following the strong gains in the last two years, exports are set for a weaker trend this year as external demand slows and global semiconductor prices are pressured lower.”

“Meanwhile, imports may be boosted by China’s efforts to expand domestic consumption and an expected recovery in the economy this year.”

“Overall, we expect China’s export to register a contraction of -3.0% this year while imports may see a small gain of around +2.0% in 2023.”