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16 Dec 2024

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Retains negative bias near 1.0500 ahead of ECB’s Lagarde speech

  • EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0510 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • The negative view of the pair prevails below the 100-day EMA with the bearish RSI indicator. 
  • The initial support level emerges at 1.0432; the first upside barrier is seen at the 1.0600-1.0610 regions. 

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.0510 during the early European session on Monday. However, the upside for the cross might be limited due to the dovish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). 

The ECB decided to cut interest rates for the fourth time this year last week and kept the door open to further easing as the Eurozone economy is weighed by political instability at home and the potential Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Later on Monday, traders await the preliminary Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December for fresh impetus, along with the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde speech. 

Technically, the bearish outlook of EUR/USD remains intact as the major pair is below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below the midline around 43.35, suggesting that further downside looks favorable. 

The first downside target emerges at 1.0432, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. A breach of this level could see a drop to 1.0332, the low of November 22. Further south, the next contention level is seen at 1.0290, the low of November 30, 2022.

On the bright side, the immediate resistance level is located in the 1.0600-1.0610 zone, representing the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and the psychological level. Sustained bullish momentum above the mentioned level could see a rally to 1.0764, the 100-day EMA. The additional upside filter to watch is the 1.0800 barrier. 

EUR/USD daily chart

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day, according to data from the Bank of International Settlements. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% of all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

 

 

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