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7 Apr 2025

Global investors reconsider their faith in the dollar’s safe haven status – Commerzbank

The Federal Reserve finds itself in a tough spot as it navigates rising inflation and slowing growth. Traditional safe haven flows into the US dollar may falter, with investors eyeing alternatives like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes.

Dollar's safe haven status may be at risk

"That is the tricky thing about this kind of growth weakness, which is currently to be expected for the US: the Fed's reaction is hampered by the fact that it also has to keep inflation under control. It has to maneuver between the recession rock and the inflation hard place. This is a significant difference to 'normal' recession phases, in which the Fed was able to concentrate on one task."

"If it can't, a recession typically turns out to be more severe. And the recovery is slower. This should be kept in mind when thinking about the USD reactions. The US dollar has been a 'safe haven' mainly because the US has usually recovered from recessions faster than other major developed economies. This time it could be different."

"The rationale that makes them 'safe havens' still applies: because both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan are already keeping their key rates at low levels, their scope for interest rate cuts in the event of a global recession would be limited – and with it their ability to weaken their own currencies."

Apr 7, 2025

Consequences for the USD exchange rates are reversed – Commerzbank

A reasonably normal tariff policy would cause the dollar to appreciate. Why? Because US consumers would prefer to consume US goods instead of imported goods, and US companies would prefer to install US machinery. After all, no tariffs would have to be paid on that.
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Apr 7, 2025

US Dollar recovers further with DXY back above 103.00

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, recovers initial losses and trades near 103.00 at the time of writing on Monday after an earliest move lower.
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