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12 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: NAB business survey edges higher; RBA cut not until May - NAB
Today's NAB survey shows business confidence holding onto the gains made in December, while business conditions improved, says Alan Oster, Chief Economist at NAB.
Business confidence rose to +3 in January vs +2 in December, while business conditions also jumped to -2 vs -5. However, despite the improvement, "levels are still weak and the outlook is poor" Alan notes.
Mr. Olsen adds: "We still see the need for the RBA to cut the cash rate by 75 bps this year – but have delayed the timing. With the labour market still holding up and the RBA still looking for the impact of past cuts, we now expect the next rate cut to be in May (Capex data on 28 February could be critical to March decision and we still put the chance of the RBA cutting in March at around 60%). We have tentatively put additional rate cuts in June and November."
Business confidence rose to +3 in January vs +2 in December, while business conditions also jumped to -2 vs -5. However, despite the improvement, "levels are still weak and the outlook is poor" Alan notes.
Mr. Olsen adds: "We still see the need for the RBA to cut the cash rate by 75 bps this year – but have delayed the timing. With the labour market still holding up and the RBA still looking for the impact of past cuts, we now expect the next rate cut to be in May (Capex data on 28 February could be critical to March decision and we still put the chance of the RBA cutting in March at around 60%). We have tentatively put additional rate cuts in June and November."