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5 Aug 2014
The day ahead and RBA rate decission - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank acknowledged that today marks one hundred years since the start of World War One. It very happily coincides with a 72-hour truce in the latest round of fighting in at least a small part of the wider conflict-torn Middle-East, but with high tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border, and saber-rattling in the South China Sea, one has to hope that everyone can take lessons to heart from the moving ceremonies that will be held around the world.
We will also see Aussie trade data, where a further huge AUD2,000M deficit is seen for June, even wider than seen in May. That might be expected to put some pressure on the Teflon AUD, but after the better-than-expected retail sales figures yesterday (-0.2% QoQ in Q2 in real terms when the market consensus was -0.5%) it would arguably take a much worse figure to make a major dent.
That is especially the case as today sees the RBA rate decision. Obviously we can expect that there will be no change in rates from 2.50%, but the statement will again be dissected to see if there are any marginal shifts in tone or emphasis.
Elsewhere Japan has its services PMI and China has its HSBC services PMI. We already know that the official Chinese measure slowed again in July, so we shall see what the alternative (with more SMEs in the sample) has to say.
India also has its services PMI, which was at 54.4 in June. Moreover, we have the RBI rate meeting: again no change is expected in the 7-8% reverse repo - repo rate corridor: inflation still has further to fall, and more monsoon rain also needs to fall, before we see any downward move in Indian rates.
It’s a bumper event and data day in Asia-Pacific as Indonesia also has Q2 GDP, which is expected at 5.2% YoY, which is steady but well below the levels that the country could be growing at if the new president manages to implement some serious reforms when he finally gets to assume office in September.
There are also a series of generally second-tier European and US data releases including Eurozone retail sales, the UK CPIS services PMI, and the US ISM non-manufacturing survey and factory orders, expected up 0.6% MoM after a -0.5% print in May.
We will also see Aussie trade data, where a further huge AUD2,000M deficit is seen for June, even wider than seen in May. That might be expected to put some pressure on the Teflon AUD, but after the better-than-expected retail sales figures yesterday (-0.2% QoQ in Q2 in real terms when the market consensus was -0.5%) it would arguably take a much worse figure to make a major dent.
That is especially the case as today sees the RBA rate decision. Obviously we can expect that there will be no change in rates from 2.50%, but the statement will again be dissected to see if there are any marginal shifts in tone or emphasis.
Elsewhere Japan has its services PMI and China has its HSBC services PMI. We already know that the official Chinese measure slowed again in July, so we shall see what the alternative (with more SMEs in the sample) has to say.
India also has its services PMI, which was at 54.4 in June. Moreover, we have the RBI rate meeting: again no change is expected in the 7-8% reverse repo - repo rate corridor: inflation still has further to fall, and more monsoon rain also needs to fall, before we see any downward move in Indian rates.
It’s a bumper event and data day in Asia-Pacific as Indonesia also has Q2 GDP, which is expected at 5.2% YoY, which is steady but well below the levels that the country could be growing at if the new president manages to implement some serious reforms when he finally gets to assume office in September.
There are also a series of generally second-tier European and US data releases including Eurozone retail sales, the UK CPIS services PMI, and the US ISM non-manufacturing survey and factory orders, expected up 0.6% MoM after a -0.5% print in May.